The "65/70/75%" Claim
As we enter the 2026 congressional election cycle, the rumblings have started again. Redraw Rhode Island's congressional districts along an east/west line, the argument goes, and you'll finally get a 1D/1R result — giving the Republican-leaning western half of the state the representation it deserves.
Versions of this argument currently making the rounds variously claim that 65%, 70%, or even 75% of western Rhode Island voted Republican in 2024. Every one of these figures is simply false.
No Rhode Island town voted 65% for Trump. Not one. The most Republican town in the state barely breached 60%. The 65%, 70%, and 75% figures describe places that do not exist in Rhode Island.
The most Republican town in the state — Burrillville, a sparsely populated community in the northwest corner — came in at 61.6% for Trump. Every other town fell short of that. These figures are not rounding errors or slight exaggerations. They are substantial overstatements of the actual voting data, and the gap between the claim and reality only grows as the numbers climb.
There Is a Split — Just Not That One
To be clear: a geographic lean does exist. Western and rural towns are meaningfully more conservative than the coastal and urban communities to the east. The numbers are real:
| Town | Trump % | Harris % | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burrillville | 61.6% | 36.2% | |
| Foster | 59.7% | 37.8% | |
| Scituate | 59.6% | 38.0% | |
| Glocester | 59.3% | 38.7% | |
| West Greenwich | 59.1% | 38.6% | |
| Johnston | 58.6% | 39.5% | |
| Coventry | 55.2% | 42.4% | |
| Smithfield | 52.9% | 44.7% | |
| Cranston | 45.7% | 51.9% | |
| Warwick | 44.8% | 52.6% |
That lean is real, and it's not nothing. But "more conservative than Providence" is a long way from "reliably Republican." And the towns where Trump cracked 55% are, almost without exception, among the smallest and most sparsely populated in the state. The difference is far less pronounced than the megaphones would have you believe.
The Population Problem That Kills the Argument
Here is where the fantasy fully collapses. Congressional districts in Rhode Island must contain roughly equal populations — approximately 530,000 residents each. That single constitutional requirement makes a Republican-leaning district mathematically impossible to construct, regardless of where you draw the line.
Burrillville, Foster, Scituate, Glocester, West Greenwich,
Johnston, Coventry, Exeter, Hopkinton, Richmond,
Woonsocket, West Warwick, North Smithfield, Smithfield
Combined votes cast in 2024: ~176,000
Required for an equal-population district: ~257,000
Shortfall: ~81,000 voters must be added from elsewhere
Cranston (Harris +6), Warwick (Harris +8), Cumberland (Harris +7),
Lincoln (Harris +2), North Providence (Harris +7) — all voted Democratic.
The arithmetic is unforgiving: the moment you add enough people to make a constitutionally valid district, you have added enough Democrats to make it a Democratic district. Our analysis of the actual 2024 presidential results confirms this directly. Taking every Republican-leaning town in the state and grouping them into one equal-population district produces a result of approximately 54% Trump, 44% Harris — competitive, yes, but not a safe Republican seat, and one built on the most favorable possible assumptions.
It doesn't matter which western towns you choose. It doesn't matter how creatively you draw the lines. Any contiguous, equal-population district you can construct from Rhode Island's geography will vote Democratic based on 2024 presidential results.
Don't take our word for it. The interactive map below lets you assign any of Rhode Island's 39 municipalities to District 1 or District 2 — and the 2024 presidential vote totals update in real time. Try every configuration you can think of. See for yourself whether any combination produces a Republican-leaning district that could actually win.
Open the Interactive Map →Redrawing Rhode Island's congressional districts is a legitimate policy conversation. Questions of fairness, community representation, and incumbent entrenchment deserve serious attention — and anyone making those arguments deserves to be heard.
But the specific claim that different lines would produce a 1D/1R result is not a fairness argument. It is a factual claim, and the facts do not support it. The state will continue to elect two Democratic representatives to Congress not because of how the lines are drawn, but because of how Rhode Islanders actually vote.